By Joseph Triepke 

The years from 2009-2014 are widely referred to as the "US Shale Revolution" in the oil markets. 

During the Shale Revolution, 40 years of US oil production declines were reversed in just 5 using unconventional well construction methods (horizontal drilling plus fracing) in three key basins (Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken). 

By any measure, the Shale Revolution was a period of excess for the O&G industry, enabled by easy access to capital and high oil prices relative to historical levels.

Over at Infill Thinking, we've coined a new term for the next phase in US unconventional development. We are calling what comes next the "US Shale Revolt."

enter image description here

A revolt feels different than a revolution. It isn't as lavish. It's an uprising of downtrodden players against oppression (in this case the Indepedents who have been beaten down by OPEC's market share grab). 

At present, we see the battered shale industry starting to rebel against low oil prices, striving to grow again despite the adversity. And we think the Revolt's prospects for success next year are strong.

Last week, we published our US oil production forecast for 2017, calling for an end to the declines of the past 17 months. We believe this reversal will occur next year even at $40-$50 oil. In our forecast piece, we set out to define expectations basin-by-basin across the US. In our analysis, there's one play that really stands out. 

Permian oil production never declined in the downturn. The rate of growth slowed, but it stayed above flat. Now we see potential for significant acceleration next year. Here's how the y/y change in production looks in the play historically and in our forecast period, which assumes oil prices stay in the $40-$50/bbl range.

enter image description here

In the full update, we identify early signs of strength that have begun to surface during 2H16. We also forecast the total US oil production trough and outline our estimates for recovery. An outlook for six major oil sources of US supply is covered as well as our methodology and key risks to our thesis (a free 30-day trial subscription is required to view the full report).